1988-2007年北京城市环境可持续性动态评价

Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Beijing Urban Area from 1988 to 2007

本文构建了北京城市环境可持续性评价指标体系,评价1988-2007年北京城市环境可持续性动态。结果发现:1988-2007年,北京城市人类活动对环境的胁迫、环境效应均呈先增大后减小的趋势,其拐点分别出现在1991年和1998年;保护生态环境的社会响应水平持续提高;综合环境可持续性水平呈先降低后提高的趋势,其拐点出现在1990年,目前仍处于较不可持续的水平。经济发展水平对人类胁迫、环境效应、社会响应和综合环境可持续性均存在直接或间接的影响:人类胁迫随经济发展水平的提高呈"U"型变化趋势;环境效应随经济发展水平的提高呈倒"U"型变化趋势;社会响应和综合环境可持续性随经济发展水平的提高呈对数增长趋势。

An indicator framework was developed to make an integrated assessment on the environmental sustainability of Beijing urban area from 1988 to 2007 in this paper. The results showed that during the period of 1988 -2007, the human pressure index （HPI） and environmental effect index （EEI） of Beijing urban area both displayed the trend of deterioration first and then improvement. The turning points of HPI and EEI respectively emerged in 1991 and 1998. The social response index （SRI） consistently increased, which indicated that the social response ability was largely improved in last 20 years. The ESI deteriorated first and then improved, and the turning point emerged in 1990. Economic devel- opment level had significantly influence on HPI, EEI, SRI and ESI. HPI showed a U - shaped change along with per capita GDP. EEl showed an inverted U - shaped relationship with per capita GDP. SRI and ESI both showed a logarithmic increase along with per capita GDP.