摘要
为了提高灰色模型的预测精度,并拓展其应用范围,针对具有近似非齐次指数律特征的数据序列,构建了一种新的灰色预测模型NGM(1,1,k).通过最小二乘法求出了新灰色模型参数的计算公式,以微分方程作为演绎推理工具,得到了该模型的时间响应序列函数,并对其建模精度进行了理论和实验分析.研究结果表明了所提出的灰色模型的有效性和适用性.
To improve the forecasting accuracy of grey forecasting and broaden its application fields; this paper develops a novel grey forecasting model, termed NGM （1,1, k）, which is based on the non-homogeneous dispersion index function, and the formula computing the parameters of the novel grey model is proposed through the least square method. The function of the time response sequence of the novel grey model is solved by taking differential equations as a deductive reasoning tool. The modeling accuracy of the novel grey model is theoretically and experimentally analyzed. Research results show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed grey NGM（1,1 ,k） model.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第11期1702-1706,共5页
Control and Decision
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(709010141
90924022
70473037)
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项基金项目(200802870020)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CX08B-039R)
南京航空航天大学科研创新基金项目(Y0811-091)
淮阴工学院科研基金项目
关键词
灰色系统
灰色预测模型
预测精度
建模机理
Grey systems
Grey forecasting model
Simulation accuracy
Modeling mechanism
