山东省不同出生队列脑血管疾病死亡率的变化趋势

A Change Trend Analysis of Cerebral Disease Mortality in Birth Cohorts in Shandong Province

目的分析山东省不同出生队列的脑血管疾病死亡率变化趋势。方法利用1970～2005年期间的4次全死因调查资料,计算脑血管疾病死亡率和世界人口标化死亡率,分析城乡的变化趋势。利用相差35年的出生队列分析其脑血管疾病死亡率的变化趋势。结果脑血管疾病死亡率占总死亡率的百分比由1970～1974年的8.82%上升到2004～2005年的22.83%。城市脑血管疾病世界人口标化死亡率由1970～1974的100.87/10万上升到2004～2005年的108.62/10万,同期,农村则由72.93/10万上升到127.11/10万,农村超过城市。按1970年和2005年相同年龄组确定相应的出生队列,然后比较相同年龄但出生队列相差35年的脑血管疾病死亡率,发现后出生队列的脑血管疾病死亡率明显高于早出生队列。结论在过去35中,山东脑血管疾病死亡率呈增加趋势;农村上升速度快,由低于城市到超过城市;出生队列分析显示,相同年龄但后出生队列人群脑血管疾病死亡率上升速率明显高于早出生队列人群。

Objective To analyze the change trend of cerebral disease mortality in birth cohorts in Shandong Province. Methods Based on the data collection of all deaths survey of four times from 1970 to 2005 in Shandong Province,the mortality rates and standardized rates of cerebral disease by the percentages of world population were calculated to observe the change of death rates in cities and counties and to analyze the change trends of cerebral disease mortality in different birth cohorts. Results The percentage of Cerebrovascular mortality accounted for all death rate increasing from 8. 82% in 1970 - 1974 to 22. 83% in 2004 -2005. In cities,the death standardized rates of the disease increased from 100. 8/100 000 in 1970 - 1974 to 108.62/100 000 in 2004 -2005 year. Meanwhile,in counties the death rates increased from 79.23/100 000 in 1970 - 1974 to 127. 11/100 000 in 2004 -2005 year. The rate of counties was higher than different that of cities. Based on the time of 1970 and 2005, the same age group to determine the corresponding birth cohort, and then comparing the death rates of cerebral disease in the same age but the difference birth cohorts, we found that the mortality rates of later birth cohorts were significantly higher than that of early birth cohorts. Conclusion In the past 35 years, the cerebrovascular disease mortality has been increased in Shandong ; and rising faster in rural areas, from below the city to higher than the city. Birth cohort analysis showed that in the same age group, the cerebral mortality rates were also significantly increased in young groups as the same as in old groups.