基于Nerlove模型的中国粮食供给反应研究

A Study of the Supply Response for Grain in China with the Nerlove Model

采用1978～2007年粮食价格和粮食播种面积的年度数据。运用Nerlove模型，对我国粮食供给反应进行实证分析，结果表明，我国粮食供给的长短期价格弹性都较低。即我国粮食播种面积不能根据粮食价格的变动作出迅速调整，从而对买粮难和卖粮难的现实形成了放大的效应，不利于粮食市场的稳定。为此．一方面要加快粮食流通体制的市场化改革。让农户能根据粮食价格的信息。积极调整粮食播种面积；另一方面．要继续加大粮食补贴政策力度．积极推进农地流转的速度，让农民真正能从种植粮食中获得与外出务工相当的收益。

Based on the annual data from 1978 to 2007, this paper empirically studies the supply response for grain in China with the Nerlove model. It is concluded that, the short-term and long-term flexibility of supply for grain is low, i.e. the grain sowing acreage cannot change with the fluctuation of grain＇s price in China, which exacerbates grain markets. Some measures should be taken as follows： on the one hand, we should reform the grain circulation system,so that households can adjust the sowing acreage according to marketing information; on the other hand, government should consolidate policy-related grain subsidies and impel rural land conversion, which can really help households obtain desirable earnings.