交叉口车辆到达统计分布的实证研究

An empirical study for vehicle arrival statistical distribution at an intersection

交叉口车辆到达的统计分布规律是交通流理论的基础,对于优化和设计信号控制方案有重要意义。车辆到达是否服从泊松分布,尚缺乏基于交通观测数据的实证研究。采集深圳市的部分道路交通数据,运用柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米洛夫非参数检验(K-S检验)方法检验车辆到达的统计分布,利用SPSS和Excel软件分析处理数据,掌握了车辆到达的统计分布特性。研究发现,泊松分布能较好地拟合交叉口车辆到达,具有较广泛的适用性。此外,K-S检验方法是检验车辆到达统计分布的有效方法,SPSS和Excel软件提高了数据分析的准确性和效率。

The statistical distribution of vehicles arriving at an intersection is the basis of the traffic flow theory and is important to the optimal design of traffic signal control. However, the empirical study based on the field data has not been done on whether the arrival of vehicles follows the Poisson＇ s Distribution or not were collected in Shenzhen, In this study, the field data Kolmogorov-Smimov （ K - S ）nonparametric tests were performed on the vehicle arrival distribution, and the statistical characteristics of the distribution were obtained through the analysis using the SPSS and Excel software. It has been found that the Poisson＇ s Distribution is capable of fitting the vehicle arrival well and has wide applicability. It also shows that the K- S test is an effective method to test the statistical distribution of arriving vehicles and the SPSS and Excel software can improve the accuracy and efficiency of data analysis.