当前国外人工增雨防雹作业的效果评估

Review of the Evaluation of Weather Modification Experiments

统计学家推荐随机化播云试验作为人工增雨防雹作业的最佳效果检验方法，但在业务性作业中却难于实施。作者综述国外人工影响天气主要外场试验计划实施中的缺陷和经验教训，以及近年来对两个最受推崇的随机化试验的争论，并通过实例说明人工影响天气的效果评估可基于无分布推断法，以简化试验设计并提高检出功效。

According to statistician's views, randomization methods are considered most reliable for detecting cloud seeding effects. But evaluating the results of an operational cloud seeding program are rather diffcult. Brief summaries of defects and experience of weather modification were confined to main weather modification activities that appear to be based on acceptable physical principles and which have been tested in the fields. An argument about two randomization experiments which won high praise is discussed. By citing some examples in point, the presently recommended analyses for evaluating weather madification experiments are based on distribution free inference techniques.