油田开发指标经验预测方法

THE EMPIRICAL METHOD FOR PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT INDEX OF OILFIELD.

将产量衰减曲线与水驱特征曲线结合起来应用，给出了一套较为完整的油田开发指标经验预测方法。既解决了衰减曲线预测中缺少含水率的问题；又解决了水驱特征曲线预测中缺少时间的问题。同时还可以用来预测油田剩余开采年限与油田废弃时的采油速度。通过实例计算，指明了高含水期是油田开发的一个重要阶段。研究认为，在应用产量衰减曲线预测可采储量时应当十分谨慎，其预测结果要比实际偏高很多。

The combination of production decline curve with water displacement curve gave a complete set of empirical method for predicting development index of oilfield, which avoided the neglect of watercut in production decline curve prediction and the neglect of time in water displacement curve prediction. It can also be used to predict the remaining development life of oilfield and oil recovery rate when it is abandoned. Case study showed that high watercut stage is an important period of oilfield development. It is suggested that we should take quite more care of the estimation of recoverable reserves with production decline curve because it is always overestimated.