东北老工业基地人口城市化的就业效应分析

Analysis on the employment effect of urbanization in the old Industrial Bases in Northeast China

在东北老工业基地经济振兴中,人口城市化与就业是相互影响的两个重大问题,对人口城市化进程中产生的就业效应进行理性的分析,意义尤为重大。本文在经济学分析框架下纳入人口学与统计学的研究方法,采用城乡增长率差法客观预测了东北地区未来城市化发展趋势,并以此为基础对劳动力需求趋势进行了科学的预测,得出的主要结论是城市化水平的提高在一定程度上会加剧城镇劳动力市场的供求矛盾,但与此同时也促进了经济增长,带来了经济的繁荣和就业水平的提高,二者之间并非完全对立关系,存在协调发展的可能。

Urbanization and employment are the two major issues which affect mutually in future economic development of Northeast Areas. It is significant that we analysis theatrically the employment effect of urbanization. This paper uses demographic and statistical research methods under the economic theoretical analysis framework, takes the future trend of the development of urbanization with the methods of urban - rural growth difference as the foundation, predicts the future trend of urban labor supply, and combines the trends of the demand for labor force based on economic growth, and reaches the main conclusions that the increasing of the level of urbanization to a certain degree aggravates the urban labor market supply and demand contradictions, but at the same time promotes economic growth and brings about economic prosperity and raises the level of employment. The relationship between the two is not totally antagonistic, and there is the possibility of coordinated development.