中国经济发展态势预测:基于国际环境与国内条件

China's Economic Development:Forecast Based on the Surroundings both at Home and Abroad

2010年中国经济的外部环境不会有大幅度好转，在不同调控政策和外部发展环境的组合情景下，2010年中国经济增长存在二次探底、平稳较快增长和高速增长等多种前景。不同政策组合可能会导致GDP增速呈现6．9％～10．6％的大幅度变化。2010年全年物价涨幅可控制在3％以内，但2010年第四季度当季可能出现严重通货膨胀现象。要实现经济增长9％左右的理想状态，需要保持宏观调控政策力度的稳定性，优化财政支出结构。

Currently, the inner growth of national economy still keep in 9%, which is higher than the practical growth. In the year of 2010, the economic exterior surroundings will become much better, combined with different control policies, Chinese economy may go to bottom the second times, or keep developing smoothly and relative fast, or keep high speed in 2010.Different policies combination will make GDP in the range of 6.9% to 10.6%. In 2010, the rise of price could be controlled in less than 3%, but in the fourth season, servious inflation may come forth.To realize the economic growth at the speed of 9%, the macro-control policies should be keep stable and the structure of fiscal expense should be optimized.