中国转型期第二产业产出与就业关系的实证——基于1979～2008年的ECM模型

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Output and Employment of the Second Industry in China Transition Period——Based on ECM Model from 1979 to 2008

本文以我国经济转型为背景,对第二产业的产出增长与就业增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。分析结果表明:第二产业就业增长是第二产业产出增长的强Granger原因,而第二产业产出增长是第二产业就业增长的弱Granger原因,这反映了我国第二产业产出与就业关系的特征是高增长、低就业和高增长、高就业并存;同时也说明了我国在产业结构调整升级过程中,短期内第二产业的产出增长和就业增长是不一致的,但从长期看来,二者存在一致性。

This paper analyzes the relationship between the output and employment of the second industry in the China transformating process,and concludes that the employment growth of the second industry does the strong Granger causes of the output growth,and the output growth of the second industry does the weak Granger causes of the employment growth.This conclusion reflects the characteristics of the relationship between the output and employment —— high output,low employment and high output,high employment.And it also explains that the second industry＇s output growth is not in accordance with the employment growth in the short run,but in the long run is just the vice verse.