汇率稳定、货币市场均衡与货币政策的独立性

Exchange Rate Stability,Monetary Market Equilibrium and Monetary Policy Independence

首先通过建立模型来测算外汇干预对国内货币市场均衡的影响,然后采用VAR模型研究货币市场失衡与干预力度以及货币政策的关系。研究显示,中国利率上升是引起人民币升值的主要原因,且利率政策在调控国内货币市场失衡方面的效果并不好。同时发现,我国货币政策在货币发行方面的独立性较弱,而在利率政策方面的独立性较强。

The authors firstly construct the model to analyze the impact of foreign intervention on domestic monetary equilibrium,and then adopt the VAR model to research the relationship among monetary disequilibrium,intervention level and monetary policy.The paper further analyzes the relation between interest rate and exchange rate.The result shows that,the increase of domestic interest rate is the main cause for RMB appreciation pressure,and the independence of the monetary issuance is relatively weak,whereas,the interest rate policy is more independent.