湖北生态足迹和经济增长的协整关系分析

Cointegration Relationship Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Economy Growth in Hubei Province

本文应用生态足迹理论计算了湖北省1980-2007年的各类生态足迹，运用协整理论和误差修正模型研究了GDP与各类生态足迹之间的长期均衡和短期波动关系。结果表明GDP分别与总生态足迹、耕地足迹、化石能源足迹和建筑用地足迹之间存在协整关系，与草地足迹、水域足迹和林地足迹不存在协整关系。经Granger因果检验，存在从GDP到总生态足迹、化石能源用地足迹和建筑用地足迹的单向Granger因果关系，以及从耕地足迹到GDP的单向Granger因果关系。这表明长期以来湖北省为保持一定的经济增长导致了过度的能源消费，与此同时，经济增长对生物资源具有较强的依赖性。为保证湖北省经济可持续发展，需改变这种资源依赖型、能源消耗型经济增长方式。

Based on the theory of ecological footprint,this paper calculates the arable land,pasture,water area,forestland,fossil energy,residential land and the total ecological footprints from 1980 to 2007 in Hubei province.By the use of cointegration theory and the error correction model,the long-run equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationships between GDP and various types of ecological footprints are researched.The results show that cointegration relationships exist between GDP and the ecological footprint,arable land,fossil energy and residential land footprint.There is no cointegration relationship between GDP and pasture,water area,forestland footprints.Furthermore,through the Granger causal test,one-way Granger causal relationships exist from GDP to fossil energy,residential land,total ecological footprint,and one-way Granger causal relationship exists from arable land footprint to GDP.This shows that in order to maintain a certain degree of economic growth,it has resulted in excessive energy consumption.At the same time,economic growth has a strong dependence on biological resources.In order to ensure sustainable economic development in Hubei Province,the resources-dependent and energy-consumption economy growth mode should be changed.