APEC对我国贸易流量的影响及其前景分析

An Analysis on APEC's Effect upon Trade Flow in China and its Prospects

面对亚太经济合作组织(APEC)成员之间贸易的长期增长趋势,利用引力模型,采用1980～2006年间我国同APEC其他国家双边贸易和相关资料,研究APEC对我国贸易流量的影响。可得出以下实证结果:在APEC成立初期,APEC整体贸易区块并未形成,对我国贸易流量的影响不明显;1994年以后,APEC对我国贸易流量促进明显,使我国与APEC其他成员的贸易流量超过双边经济发展、市场规模以及地理关系所决定的流量水平;但是2002年以后,APEC的这种促进作用有所回落。

With facing a long term trade growth trend among member countries of APEC, in this paper, I make an analysis on the APEC＇s effect upon our country＇s trade flow, with related materials of bilateral trade with other APEC countries from 1980 to 2006. And it turns out to be that, at the beginning of APECs founding, its effect on China＇s trade flow is not obvious. However, after 1994, APEC plays an significant role in improving trade flow of our country. And after 2002, its effect is weakening.