基于故障树方法的项目安全风险分析

Project Safety Risk Analysis Based on Fault Tree Method

从深基坑施工事故产生的原因来看,各种风险事件往往表现出复杂的逻辑关系。采用故障树理论,从系统的角度对深基坑施工事故的原因进行逐层分解,从而对深基坑施工的安全风险因素进行辨识。考虑到基坑施工故障树基本事件发生概率的取值具有一定的不确定性,将基本事件的发生概率作为模糊数进行处理,通过对上海电网越江电力管道工程深基坑施工可能出现的安全事故中间事件和顶事件模糊故障树的分析计算,说明整个深基坑施工安全风险的分析过程。实例分析表明,基于模糊数的故障树分析方法对深基坑施工的安全风险分析是可行的,并具有一定的应用价值。

All risk events usually show the complex logic relation to the factors caused by the deep founda- tion excavation construction. This paper resolved the fault reasons by layer upon layer based on the sys- tematology and distinguished the safety risk of the deep foundation construction. It is realized that the fault probability caused by the deep foundation excavation is undefined, and this paper regards the proba- bility of the basic event as fuzzy datum, and illustrates the whole analysis process of the safety risk of deep foundation construction based on the fault tree logic structure of intermediate and top events. The applied example shows that it is possible and applicable to using the fuzzy fault tree method to analyze the safety risk of the deep foundation construction in Electric Power Tunnel Project under Shanghai Huangpu River.