人民币是否升值过度?——来自基本均衡汇率(1994～2008)的证据

Has RMB Been Overappreciated?——Evidence from Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate(1994~2008)

自2005年7月汇率制度改革至2009年2月，人民币对美元名义汇率升值21％。2007-2008年间中国沿海数以万计的出口企业倒闭，大量工人失业，经济现象显示人民币很可能已经升值过度．然而多数研究文献的计算结果却指出人民币升值还未到位。本文通过计算人民币基本均衡汇率和汇率失调表明，截至2008年底，人民币已升值过度。

RMB has appreciated against the US dollar by 21 per cent from July 2005 to February 2009. Thousands of enterprises have filed bankruptcy and a lot of people lost their jobs in 2007-2008. It is possibly the result of overappreciation, though estimation of RMB equilibrium exchange rate in recent studies shows that the current rate is still undervalued. By estimating the RMB fundamental equilibrium exchange rate. in contrast to other studies, this paper concludes that the RMB exchange rate might have been overvalued by the end of 2008.