中国大陆季节性流感活动的时空分布特征

Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal influenza in China's Mainland

目的研究中国大陆流感活动时空分布和季节性的流行特征及流感病毒传播规律。方法应用回顾性时空聚类分析方法探讨中国流感活动的时空分布特征，通过建立空间趋势面的方法，分析流感病毒在中国大陆扩散的总体空间趋势。结果中国大陆流感活动具有两种季节性流行模式。南方地区流感流行高峰主要在6—8月[儿科诊室流感样病例就诊比（ILI％）的RR=1．31，P〈0．01；内科诊室ILI％的RR=1．74，P〈0．01]；北方地区流感流行高峰主要在12月至次年1月（儿科诊室ILI％的RR=1．45，P〈0．01；内科诊室ILI％的RR=1．45，P〈0．01）。中国季节性流感病毒出现时间具有明显的由南向北先后出现的趋势。结论中国南方地区6—8月是流感防控重点时段，北方地区12月至次年1月是流感防控重点时段，同时应足够重视南方地区出现抗原变异株。

Objective To study the spatiotcmporal distribution and seasonal characteristics of influenza and to explore its transmission patterns, in the mainland of China. Methods Spatiotcmporal cluster methods and spatial trend surface methods were used to analyze the influenza surveillance data. Results There were a summer peak in the south from June to August （RRpaediatric= 1.31, P〈0.01; RRinternel= 1.74, P〈0.01） and a winter peak from December to January （RRpacdiatric= 1.45, P〈0.01 ; RRinternel= 1.45, P〈0.01 ） in the northern part of the country, during every epidemic season. Influenza virus in China's Mainland seemed to spread from the southern to the northern parts of the country, in a progressing way. Conclusion In the southern part of the country, it is more important to take prevention and control measurements on influenza from June to August but for the northern part, the key period is from December to January. It is more important to timely identify the variation of the influenza virus, in the southern part of the country.