土地利用规划中建设用地需求量预测的两种模型比较——以东方市为例

A CASE STUDY ON DONGFANG CITY: COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO MODELS TO PREDICT CONSTRUCTION LAND DEMANDS DURING LAND UTILIZATION PLANNING

随着社会经济的发展,经济建设用地的需求量越来越大。但是,目前土地利用规划中对建设用地需求量的预测还存在许多不足的地方。本文以海南省东方市为例,通过建立基于经济发展的回归模型和灰色系统模型预测东方市2010年和2020年的建设用地需求量。结果表明,本文建立的回归模型的预测值与实际较为接近,在规划应用中具有较高的可操作性,而用灰色系统模型预测的结果随着年份的增多,预测值越偏大,需要一定的修正才能作为预测参考。

As economy goes on, the construction land demands become bigger and bigger. The prediction of construction demands during land utilization planning, however, still need to be improved. This paper, based on a case study on Dongfang city, Hainan province, establishes regress model and grey model of economic development to predict the construction land demands in 2010 and 2020, indicating that the regress model has a better application, but the grey model produces a bigger variation as years goes by, which can be applied for reference only by some correction.