总需求、总供给和宏观经济政策的动态效应分析——AD-AS模型与中国数据的匹配性

Dynamic Analysis of Aggregate Demand,Aggregate Supply and Macroeconomic Policy

本文在讨论一个凯恩斯主义AD-AS模型的基础上,主要采用Gali(1992)的分析框架,在SVAR模型中检验凯恩斯主义AD-AS模型与中国数据的匹配性。关于中国的实证分析结论主要有:总产出和物价水平对总需求冲击反应的同向运动与AD-AS模型经济学含义具有一致性;产量和物价水平对总供给冲击反应的同向运动与AD-AS模型经济学含义不相符合。这说明中国数据与AD-AS模型的内涵具有一定的不匹配性。

The paper tries to use SVAR model to analyze how Keynesian AD- AS model well fits China＇s data？ The paper first discusses AD-AS model. Consequently, the paper makes use of China＇s quarterly data and gives an empirical analysis in term of Gali＇s （1992） framework. Then the paper gets identification restrictions of SVAR model and analyses impulse response function and variance decomposition. Finally, we have conclusions： Responses of output and price to aggregate demand shock are consistent with economics implications of AD-AS model; Responses of output and price to aggregate supply shock don＇t suit the implications of AD-AS model.