外汇储备、人民币汇率与国内就业率

Foreign Exchange Reserves,the RMB Exchange Rate and Domestic Employment

本文分析外汇储备、人民币汇率对国内总体就业率和民营企业就业状况的实际影响,因为调节外汇储备增幅及人民币汇率水平,可以形成不同类型的政策组合。研究结果表明,提高国内就业率水平,有效改善民营企业的就业率状况,保持人民币汇率的基本稳定,同时维持适度外汇储备增长,以确保一个相对温和的通货膨胀率水平,不失为一套有效的中长期政策组合。另外,采取让人民币汇率一次性升值以及旨在降低过高外汇储备增长的调控措施,在短期内也是合意的。

This paper analyzes the impact of the foreign exchange reserves and the RMB exchange rate on the domestic gross employment rate as well as the employment status of private enterprises. Because regulation of foreign exchange reserves and RMB exchange rate can form different types of policy mix. The results show that it is necessary to improve the related objectives through maintaining the RMB exchange rate basically stable, meanwhile maintaining a certain amount of foreign exchange reserves increase to ensure a relatively moderate level of inflation rate. This is a practical effective long-term policy mix. In addition, the mixpolcy which lets the RMB exchange rate take one step revaluation and, at the same time reduce the excessive foreign exchange reserve growth in the short term, is also proper.