温特斯法在110警情预测中的应用初探

Application of Winter Methods to 110 Policing Alert Prediction

用统计学中的温特斯法对昆明市西山区110警情数据进行数学分析,可看出在特定的社会环境下,各种诱发犯罪和抑制犯罪的因素相互制约,110刑事警情总量会相对稳定在一个常态幅度办。用温特斯法原理预测110警情;准确率在85%以上。根据温特斯法原理,可构建防控网络,建立区域性协调联动的打防控机制,最大限度地发挥警务工作效能,实现"四大转变"

Taking advantage of Winster Methods of statistics to analyze the alert data in Xishan Public Security Branch Bureau, we can see that various factors that cause and restrain crimes restrict each other in particular surroundings, and alerts are in a stable range. This method is able to ensure 85% accuracy. According to Winster Methods, we can construct net- work for control and prevention, set up regional network cooperation in combat, prevention and control, which makes us deal with our work efficiently and eventually realize＂ Four transformation＂.