国际资本流动与转轨国家金融安全的相关性——以俄罗斯为案例

International Capital Flows and Finacial Security in Transitional Countries:A Correlation Analysis on Russia

在经济全球化时代,转轨国家的金融自由化与金融全球化间的相关性日益增强,特别是随着这些国家经济开放的不断扩大和一体化程度的提高,国际资本的流动与利率、汇率、证券价格、相应的衍生工具间形成了关联性较强的传导机制。国际资本流入或流出的规模和结构不平衡因素构成了危及转轨国家金融安全的重大隐患。由于国际金融风险的传导作用,造成转轨国家金融体系内在运行、金融监管机制运行的不协调,加之转轨国家自身金融体系的脆弱性,使其面临的金融风险成为危及金融安全的重要因素。在大的转轨经济体中,这一相关性在俄罗斯尤为明显。总结俄罗斯在金融自由化道路上的经验教训,提出国际资本流动条件下转轨国家保障金融安全的对策建议,这对中国具有重要的现实意义。

In the age of economic globalization,there's increasing correlation between financial globalization and the financial marketization in transitional economies. Especially as these countries continued to promote economic opening up and their integration into global economy,a strong transmission mechanism is occurred between international capital flows and interest rates,foreign exchange rates,stock prices and corresponding derivatives. The scale and structural imbalances of the international capital inflows or outflows have seriously endangered the financial security of transitional countries. The transmission of international financial risks leads to uncoordinated operations of both national financial system and financial regulatory mechanisms,which,together with the fragile financial system in transitional countries,make the financial risks they faced the most imminent issue threatening their financial security. Such correlation is particularly conspicuous in large transitional countries like Russia. Therefore,it will be of practical significance for China to learn the lesson from Russia in pursuing financial liberalization and to put forward countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the financial security in transitional economies under the condition of international capital flows.