1957-2007年额济纳荒漠绿洲暖干化趋势

Warming-drying Trend in the Desert and Oasis in Erjina Banner during the Period of 1957-2007

选用1957-2007年额济纳旗气温、降水、相对湿度等资料,使用距平分析、趋势分析、累计距平、滑动t检验、Yam amoto等方法,分析额济纳旗51年来的气温、降水、相对湿度、干燥度等变化趋势以及干燥度的突变特征。结果表明:51年来额济纳旗年、季平均气温均明显上升,年降水量及夏季降水量呈明显下降趋势,干燥度亦呈逐渐下降趋势,气候暖干化趋势明显,干燥度在1989年发生了突变。在西北部分地区出现暖湿化趋势,额济纳旗则呈现明显的暖干化趋势,在气候暖干化趋势下,额济纳旗环境无疑将承受更大压力,在追求经济快速发展的同时,应考虑气候的暖干化趋势,从而制定科学的环境保护政策。

This paper analyzes the change trends of air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and aridity as well as the abrupt change of aridity in Erjina Banner of Inner Mongolia during the period from 1957 to 2007 using the temperature, precipitation and relative humidity data observed by Erjina Banner Meteorological Station by applying methods of anomaly analysis, trend analysis, accumulative anomaly analysis, moving t-test and Yamamoto test. The results show that the annual temperature and seasonal temperature were obviously increased in recent 51 years, the annual and summer precipitations were significantly decreased, aridity was also decreased gradually, warming-drying trend was obvious, and the aridity was abruptly changed in 1989. Under the warming-wetting trend in some regions of northwest China, a warming-drying trend occurs in Erjina Banner, and the environmental pressure in Erjina Banner will become more serious. In the rapid economic development, the warming-drying trend should be emphatically considered so as to work out a rational policy for conserving the environment in Erjina Banner.