我国省际产业结构演进的特征:速度、水平及随机趋势

A Characteristic Analysis of the China’s Provincial Industrial Structure Evolutionary:Speed、Level and Trends in Random

对1978～2008年间我国各地产业结构演进的水平、速度及随机性趋势差异进行了实证分析,结果表明经济发展水平越高的地区,产业结构演进的速度越快;各地第一、二产业的比重差异逐渐减小,而第三产业的差异却在逐渐增大,这可能是导致各地经济发展差距扩大的结构原因;经济发达的东部与落后的西部产业结构演进序列基本是平稳的,而中部地区的产业结构变迁的起伏性大、差异性大,这与各区域的经济发展水平是一致的。

This paper analyzed the evolutionary level and speed of China＇ s industrial structure and its random differences in trends during 1978 to 2008. The resuh demonstrated that the more developed an area was, the more fast the industrial structure evolution would be, and that the proportion differences of primary and secondary industry among each area was decreasing, while the tertiary industry increasing, which was believed to be the reason of the widening gap of economic differences among different parts of the country. Moreover, the well - developed eastern areas and the poor westem areas shared a basically stable industrial structure evolutionary sequence, while the central areas experienced great ups and downs and had big differences during the changes of industrial structure, which was consistent with the economic development level of each area.