地铁火灾风险性的多级可拓综合评估

Multi-level Extensible Assessment of Subway Fire Risks

为了弥补现有地铁火灾风险评估方法的不足,并为地铁的消防设计与管理提供量化指标,建立了以层次分析法(AHP)、专家调查法为基础,以可拓法为核心的地铁火灾风险的多级可拓评估方法,并给出了评估流程。对一地铁算例进行了评估,并根据评估结果得到地铁火灾风险的薄弱环节及管理重点。通过对比分析可知,本文方法与模糊评估方法所得的评估结果一致,从而表明:将可拓原理应用到地铁火灾风险性的评估中是合理可行的,很好地解决了地铁火灾风险评估的实际问题,本文方法可应用到相关的风险评估领域中。最后,对地铁火灾安全提出了一些建议。

To improve present methods available for risk assessment of subway fires and to offer quantitative indexes for design and management of fire prevention of subways, a comprehensive multi--level extensible assessment method of subway fire risks has been developed with the extension theory as its theoretical core on basis of the analytic hierarchy process method and of the expert investigation method. The flow chart of the comprehensive multi--level extensible assessment method is drawn in this paper. The fire risk of a subway was assessed with the developed method to find out the weak parts in subway fires and the key aspects in subway management. The comparative analysis shows that the results are consistent between the method in this paper and the fuzzy assessment method. Therefore, it is reasonable and feasible to apply the extension theory in the assessment subway fire risks, which has properly solved practical problems in risk assessment of subway fires. The method proposed in this paper can also be applied in other relevant fields of risk assessment. Finally, some suggestions on the safety of subway fires are proposed in this paper.