税率对地下经济规模的影响:基于可变参数模型和VAR模型的分析

Research on the Tax Rate's Influence on Chinese Underground Economy Scale:An Empirical Study Based on the Variant Model and VAR Model

地下经济最本质的特征是逃避税收和政府监管。基于可变参数模型和VAR模型,可以分析地下经济规模对税率变动的敏感度及税率变动对地下经济规模变动的冲击。研究结果表明:税率是影响地下经济的重要因素,并且税率对地下经济规模的影响具有一定的时滞性。

The basic nature of underground economy is to escape from taxation and government＇supervision. This paper carries research on the sensitivity of underground economy scale to the change in tax rate and its influence incured on the underground economy scale. It may conclud that tax rate is a major element of change in underground economy scale, but it is time-lagged.