基于灰色理论的西安土地利用预测研究

Research on Forecast of Land Use in Xi'an City Based on the Theory of Gray System

研究土地利用的变化并做好预测,有利于了解土地变化的原因及发展趋势,有利于调整土地利用结构,使土地利用更趋于合理。依据1998-2006年西安土地利用的变化数据,基于灰色关联度模型分析西安土地利用变化的主要影响因素,计算得到人口因素、固定资产投资是影响土地利用结构的主要因素,并在此基础上运用灰色系统预测理论对2009-2011年土地利用进行了预测,得到耕地林地将不断减少、建设用地将迅速增加的结论。

Research on the change and forecast of land use, enables better understanding of the land change and the trend of development, in order to adjust land use structure and become more reasonable land use. In thi：; paper, using changes of land use data, 1998 -2006 in Xi＇an, based on gray correlation analysis, we obtain main influencing factors of land use is demographic factors and investment in fixed assets. On this basis the use of gray system theory forecasting for the 2007- 2011 land use for the prediction, to be cultivated land, forest land will continue to decrease and in construction sites will have a rapid increase speed.