中国农民收入增长因素的VAR模型分析——以江苏省为例

The Analysis on Rural Residents'Income Growth Based on VAR in China:An Empirical Study Based on Jiangsu

通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR),分析了江苏省农村工业化、农民教育水平、地区交通条件以及农民人均耕地面积对农民人均纯收入的影响,结果显示这四个因素对农民人均纯收入都具有正向的推动作用。脉冲响应函数分析还表明:农村的工业化对农民人均纯收入的提高具有自我强化的推动作用;农民教育水平初期显示一定负向效应,但一段时期后则是持续的正效应,其对农民收入增长具有滞后的正向推动作用,政府对于农村教育的支持对农民收入的长期增长更显重要;交通条件的改善对农民收入的增长也有持续的正向作用;单纯的收入补贴或扶贫对农民收入持续增长作用有限。

By vector auto- regression （VAR） model, the paper analyzes influence of industrialization in country, education of the rural residents, traffic condition and average infield of the rural residents on the rural residents＇ average pure income in Jiangsu province. The result shows that all the four factors have positive effect on growth of average pure income of the rural residents. Impulse response function shows industrialization in country is a kind of self - strengthening driving force on rise of average pure income of the farmer. Education level of the farmer has passive influence on income of the farmer in the beginning, but after some period it has sustaining positive effect, and it has aactually a positive hysteresis. Thus, support of the government to education in country is a more important factor to growth of the farmer＇ income in the long term. Improvement of traffic condition also may push income of the farmer grow. Simple income allowance or poverty alleviation has very limited effect on rise of the rural residents＇ income.