清代分年龄组人口的数量研究

Study on the Number of People in Age Groups in Qing Dynasty

根据现存的历史人口总量数据,提出基于人口学特征的四点理论假设,应用微分方程组建立人口演化过程的数学模型,并对1741-1850年人口年龄构成做出了估算。通过对人口曲线的分析,得出了战争是影响中国历史人口年龄构成的主要因素和60岁以上人口比例相对稳定等结论。

This paper put forwards four theoretical assumptions based on the demographic charaeteristics according to existing historical population data, establishes mathematical model of population evolution by using differential equations, and estimates population＇s age composition from 1741 to 1850. Through the analysis on population curve, it is concluded that war is the main determinant to impact Chinese population＇s age composition and the population proportion aged over 60 is relatively stable.