长江下游江心洲水道河床演变分析及趋势预测

Analysis of riverbed evolution and trend prediction for Jiangxinzhou waterway of the lower Yangtze River

以现场调研和多年实测资料为基础,采用理论分析与逻辑推理相结合的方法,对长江下游江心洲水道的河床演变及趋势进行了分析和预测。结果表明:江心洲水道处于长顺直河段内,其变化符合顺直型河流河床演变的基本规律;主流摆动频繁,滩槽不稳是河床演变的主要特点;河势总体稳定并将继续维持,但由于上游水流动力轴线难以完全稳定,因而本水道目前的微弯深槽也难以长期维持现状。另外由于河道顺直,这种平面形态也难以维持滩槽的稳定。

Based on site investigation and annual survey data,theoretical analysis and logical deduction were used to analyze the riverbed evolution and predict its development tendency. The main research resuhs are as follows：Jiangxinzhou waterway is in long straight reach and its evolution accords with basic regularity in straight river. The main characteristics are that the main flow shifts frequently and riffle and pool is unstable. River regime is generally stable and will keep the situation.But the crooked pool of the waterway will not maintain the current situation in the future because the flow dynamic axis of upper river is unstable.What is more,the planform of the waterway will not keep the beach riffle and pool stable because of the straight reach.