国际黄金价格走势分析与预测方法

Analysis and prediction method of international gold price trend

布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,黄金从官方限价转变为市场定价,金价走势也一直起伏不定。由于黄金的特殊属性和历史地位,以及政治、经济等各方面因素都会影响金价,所以金价走势一直难以预测。文中从分析黄金合理价格标准入手,探求判断金价走势的新方法,并且得出结论:通过黄金期货持仓量增减把握短期金价走势;根据美元指数和石油价格评估中期金价走势;按照美元购买力大小推算长期金价走势。

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the market-set gold price replaced offical limit gold price and gold price has been always changing. For the particular property and historical position of gold, political and economic factors can influence its price, which is hard to be predicted. The paper analyzes the rational gold price standard and founds a new method to judge the gold price trend： the short-term price trend can be predicted by the position held changes; the medium-term price trend can be evaluated by the US dollar index and oil price; the long- term one can be caculated by the purchasing power of US dollar.