安徽省最终需求对产业演进影响的实证分析——基于投入产出模型的视角

Empirical Analysis on the Influences of Final Demands on Industrial Evolution of Anhui Province——Based on Input and Output Model

利用投入产出模型和安徽省2002年与2005年投入产出表,实证分析了最终需求对各产业的生产诱发影响和产业结构变动的最终需求原因。结果表明最终需求对各产业都有不同程度的诱发作用,体现了安徽省产业结构处在工业化发展中期的特征,即第三产业对经济增长的作用正在继续提高。但是分析也表明安徽省科技成果转化的能力还不高,一些产业部门还缺乏技术创新的动力。因此,改善市场竞争机制、提高知识产权保护和加强技术创新是未来产业结构升级转换的关键。

By using the input-output model and Anhua’s input-output production tables in 2002 and 2005,this paper makes the empirical analysis on the productive inducement influence of final demands on all industries and the causes of industry structure change from final demands.The results show that the final demands have induced differently all industries,embodying the characteristics of industrial structure of Anhui Province in the middle period of industrial development and the continuous improvement of the effects of the tertiary industry on economic growth. And the analysis also shows that the transformation capability of sci-tech achievements in Anhui Province is not high, and that some industries are short of the motivation of technological innovation. Therefore the keys to update and transfer industrial strueture in the future are improving market competitive meehanism, improving intellectual property protection and strengthening technological innovation.