湖北省耕地面积变化与粮食安全响应研究

Analysis on the Regional Mechanism of Cultivated Land Change and Food Safety --A Case for Hubei Province

粮食安全是社会经济发展必须重视的问题。通过建立耕地驱动模型和粮食安全系数指标体系，以湖北省为例，分析了区域粮食安全系数与耕地面积变化的相关性。结果表明：①耕地面积的变化表明城市化、工业化导致的劳动力的产业转移，是耕地面积变化的主要动因．城乡收入差距的拉大也起到了不可轻视的作用；②从粮食安全系数计算结果来看，湖北省粮食安全得以保证，但是下降趋势不可避免，存在潜在威胁；从耕地驱动力预测结果来看，在未来湖北省粮食生产的耕地数量需求前景不容乐观；③关于粮食安全系数与耕地面积的相关分析来看，二者存在关系，且每1％的变动会带来粮食安全系数每-0．000144％的反方向变动。依据耕地变化驱动力模型预测的2010和2020年耕地面积，社会经济的不断发展条件下要保证耕地面积还有很大困难。依据研究结果，从宏观和微观层次上提出了保障粮食安全和保护耕地数量和质量相关的政策建议。

The change of cultivated land area in the region influences not only the sustainable development of the region, but also the food security. Based on the statistical data over the past ten years and detailed investigation of cultivated land use during the recent years the author analyzed the characteristics of the mechanism of the cultivated in Hubei Province. The author made predictions on the change of area of cultivated land and its effects on the food security in the future on the basis of analysis between cultivated land change and economic development, security,this paper makes an analysis of the grain security variants in Hubei province since the reform an d opening up of China,and further on the basis of the trait of the cropland pressure variant and with the method of gray prediction,predicts the grain security status in the forthcoming 15 years. The results are as follows：cropland pressure index in Hubei Province has been larger than 1 since 1978,indicating a continuous period that the grain supply is smaller than the demand and the grain security of the province is at a shaky stage. The years between 2005 and 2020 will witness a growing increase of cropland pressure index bigger than 1, refleeting the widening gap between grain supply and demand an d showing a more stressing state of grain security. Therefore,the paper puts forward some counter measures an d suggestions to ensure the grain security an d promote Hubei＇sustainable development.