考虑预报误差的枫树坝水库实时调度

REAL TIME RESERVOIR DISPATCHING WITH CONSIDERATION OF FORECASTING ERROR

在计算枫树坝水库入库洪水预报误差的基础上,进行了预报洪水风险分析,建立了枫树坝水库预报误差风险函数,为合理使用预报成果提供了科学依据.根据调度规则,结合预报误差风险作出了枫树坝水库作业预报及预报调度,可供实际预报调度决策中应用和参考.

Based on statistical reservoir flood forecasting error, this text proceeds forecasting risk analysis,then establishes reservoir forecasting error risk function which puts scientific basis for rational use of forecasting production. According to reservoir scheduling discipline, probing into Feng Shuba reservoir forecasting dispatching which combines forecasting error risk, it puts application for real time forecasting and dispatching.