干旱区社会经济系统水循环研究初探

Preliminary Study on Socio-economic Water Cycle at Arid Regions

在人文作用的驱动下,水在社会经济系统中不是简单的流动,而是在不同产业、区域和消费领域之间进行运移和转化。基于对资源流动理论和虚拟水概念的理解,构建了社会经济系统中虚拟水流计算的投入产出方法,并设计了干旱区社会经济系统水循环研究的基本框架。最后以张掖市为例研究了经济生产中水的流动与转化过程、规律以及效应。结果表明:张掖市本地经济生产难以消耗外部地区高含水量的农产品,不能将本地生产对水资源产生的压力通过贸易的形式转移到其他富水地区,因而缺乏应用虚拟水战略的潜力和能力。

Driven by human activities,the water movement in socioeconomic system is not a simple flow in physical sense,but water is transferred and transformed with products and services among different industries,regions and consumers in virtual sense.Based on understanding the resources flow theory and virtual water concept,in this paper an extended input-output model is developed to calculate the volume of virtual water in the water cycle in socioeconomic system,and a basic framework of water cycle in socioeconomic system at drainage-basin scale is designed.The method is applied to analyze the processes and effects of water transferring and conversion in the economic system in Zhangye City.The results show that it is difficult to get external water resources for producing framing products in Zhangye City although this city suffers from a serious shortage of water,that means the high pressure of shortage of water resources in Zhangye City can not be transferred through merchandise trade with the external regions where water resources are abundant,so it is short of potential and capability in Zhangye City to utilize virtual water.As an important base for commercial food production in Gansu Province,the grain reserves in Zhangye City are high.Therefore, it is suggested to strengthen the construction of the project of returning land for fanning to afforesting and grassplot, reduce the crop-growing area,and optimize the economic structure in Zhangye City.