基于概率模型的环城游憩带乡村旅游开发决策路径研究

Study on Development Decision-making Path of Recreational Belt around Metropolis(ReBAM) Rural Tourism Based on Probability Model

针对乡村旅游开发中出现的"一哄而上",本研究采用AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process,层次分析法),在EC11.5(Expert Choice11.5)的帮助下构建了环城游憩带乡村旅游开发的影响因子体系和概率计算模型,并与门槛值相结合建立了环城游憩带乡村旅游的开发决策路径,以期将客观的概率模型引入乡村旅游开发决策,从定量角度为乡村旅游的可持续发展提供建议。同时,本研究根据矩阵计算和检验结果,对影响环城游憩带乡村旅游的主要因子和指标进行了分析,初步论证了环城游憩带乡村旅游在实践上的特殊性以及在理论上的典型性。

Aiming at the phenomenon of ＂rushing headlong into mass action＂ during the development of rural tourism, the paper first constructs influencing factor index system and probability calculation model by adopting AHP （analytic hierarchy process） and EC 11.5 （Expert Choice 11.5） with the combination of threshold value to establish development decision-making path of ReBAM rural tourism. It is expected to introduce the objective probability modal into the development decision-making of rural tourism, which offers suggestions for the sustainable development of rural tourism frora quantitative perspective. Meanwhile, the study, in accordance with matrix calculation and test results, makes an analysis of main factots and indexes that affect ReBAM rural tourism and initially demonstrates its peculiarity in practice and typicality in theory.