河南省第一产业增加值的关联分析与灰色预测

The Relevance Analysis and Gray Forecast of the Value-added of Primary Industry of Henan Province

根据1998～2007年的相关数据,利用灰色关联度分析了农业、林业、牧业和渔业对河南省第一产业增加值的影响程度。采用灰色理论对2003～2007年相关数据建立了河南省第一产业增加值的预测灰色模型,经检验模型具有较好的精度。将该模型应用到2008～2012年河南省第一产业增加值的预测中,得出了河南省第一产业增加值在2011年将超过3000亿元的结论。

According to the relevant data from 1998 to 2007, the gray relational grade had been used to analyze the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery impact on the value-added of primary industry of Henan Province. The gray model of value-added forecast of prima- ry industry had been created by gray theory using the relevant data from 2003 to 2007, and this gray model had fairly accuracy through testing. Applying this model to the value-added forecast of primary industry of Henan Province from 2008 to 2012, this article had came to the conclusion of the value-added exceeding 3 000 billion of primary industry of Henan Province in 2011.