湖南经济周期阶段及其持续性分析

Analysis on Phases and Duration of Hunan Business Cycle

根据湖南1978-2008年的相关数据对湖南经济周期阶段进行的研究，结果表明：虽然2004年湖南已经开始进入经济扩张阶段，但是2008年经济出现回落的迹象，实际产出正在向潜在产出靠近。同时，对湖南经济周期持续性研究结果表明：经济扩张阶段的持续时间一般是5．33年左右，因此，在2009年湖南经济周期阶段有可能发生变化，即经济很可能从扩张阶段转向收缩阶段。

The paper analyzes Hunan business cycle according to the data from 1978 to 2008. The results show that although Hunan economy is on expansion phase from 2004, it suffers a setback in 2008, which shows the actual output is approaching the potential output. The analysis on the duration of Hunan business cycle manifests that the expansion phase lasts around 5.33 years. Therefore there may be a change on Hunan business cycle, or a shift from expansion into contraction in 2009.