基于STIRPAT模型分析社会经济因素对甘肃省环境压力的影响

Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on Environment in Gannan Province

运用生态足迹理论分析了甘肃省环境可持续性动态变化特征,甘肃省环境可持续性状况随时间的变化呈现出显著的阶段性特征,并以1998年为分水岭,之前,人类生产消费活动处于环境承载范围之内,此后,出现人均生态足迹赤字且总体呈显著的上升趋势。同时,万元GDP生态足迹以较快的速度递减,表明资源利用效率得到很大提高,且潜力依旧巨大。以1991-2006年甘肃省生态足迹时间序列数据作为环境压力的衡量指标,利用STIRPAT模型分析了人口数量、经济(人均GDP)、社会(城市化水平和产业结构)等人文驱动力对环境压力的影响。结果表明,人口数量的增加,富裕程度的增强都将不同程度地加剧人类对环境的影响,而产业结构的适当调整能有效减轻环境压力。

Identifying the specific forces driving environmental imapets is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. Firstly, the analytic utility of the weill-known IPAT identity and its newly advance including the developed IMPACT identity and STIRPAT model is assessed. Then the stochastic model and its application are intorduced. With STIRPAT, it is easy to determine the impacts of population and affluence on environment using cross-sectiona or time-series data.Secondly, taking Gansu province as a case, the anthrepogenic driving forces of evbironmental impacts using the STIRPAT model and time-seriesdata（form 1991to 2006） is unpacked. The ecological footprint was taken as the index of environmental impacts. A series of index like urbanzization rote,economic srtucture, populaton and GDP per capita are considered in the empirical model. Thirdly, the analysis results show that the ecological footprint and ecological deficit of Gansu province is increasing, the demand of footpront per GDP 10000yuan decreasing markably, the utilization efficiency of resources is raised and its petential is still large. Poptlation, urbanzation rate and affluence have positive effects on ecological footprint, and economic structrue has a negotive effect on the ecologican footprint.