摘要
文章利用1986-2008年天津经济技术开发区FDI与GDP、出口、工业总产值、工业产品销售收入、从业人数5个主要经济指标相关数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验计量经济学方法,对FDI与天津开发区经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现,FDI与天津开发区除出口外的经济指标存在长期的均衡关系,但从长期来看,FDI不是促进天津开发区各经济指标增长的原因,但这并不意味着说,长远来看,开发区不应当引进FDI,因为FDI还有可能通过促进产业升级等间接效应来促进各经济指标的增长。
Based on the data of five main economic indicators, including FDI, GDP, Export, Gross industry output, industry business and employment number from Tianjin development zone during 1986-2008, this paper attempts to examine the correlation between FDI inflowing and Tianjin development zone＇s economic growth empirically by the ADF test, Co-integration analysis as well as Granger test. The paper finds that there exists a steady long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI and the main economic indicators except export indicator, but FDI is not the Granger cause for promoting the growth of main economic indicators in the long run, Which does not mean that economic zone should not attract FDI inflow, because FDI can enhance the economic growth through indirect effect such as upgrading of the industrial structure and so on.
