企业海外扩张的不确定性动态模拟

Dynamical Simulation on the Uncertainties of Overseas Expansion of Chinese Enterprises

近几年,中国企业海外扩张提速,但企业海外扩张具有很大的不确定性。本文从新的角度出发,将企业海外扩张看作是对海外当地市场体系的一种扰动,并在此基础上结合生态学Tilman多物种共存模型提出企业海外扩张干扰模型。数值模拟发现,企业海外扩张具有明显的不确定性。市场占有率小的企业在海外当地市场中由于不能适应新环境无法成功扩张,被排斥在市场之外;若市场占有率足够大,在几年或几十年时间内就会在新环境中以指数增长形式扩张,致使当地企业倒闭,扩张成功;海外扩张企业不一定会一直持续下去,或许在百年或几百年时间内突然倒闭,当地市场体系又恢复到原来水平。本文的模拟同样也揭示了并购七七定律,显示了企业海外扩张中的不确定性。

In recent years, Chinese enterprises have expanded abroad in an accelerated speed, but many factors in market and the joint effect always lead to uncertainties in the process. This article proceeded from a brand-new angle, perceived overseas expansion of enterprises as a disturbing factor to local market system abroad, and brought forward the model for disturbance of overseas expansion of enterprises in combination with ecological Tilman multi-species co-existence model. The simulation of data discovered that uncertainties are involved in overseas expansion of enterprises. Those enterprises, which have small market shares, will find themselves unable to adapt to new environment and fail to expand. With considerably large market shares, the enterprises will expand wildly in a couple of or more years so that local enterprises will shut down. The overseas expansion will not last forever. The enterprises may shut down suddenly within hundreds of years and the local market system return to its previous level. This article also revealed the 7-7 law for purchase in order to show the uncertainties in overseas expansion of enterprises.