东北三省冬季气温变化的有关研究进展

Advances in the Research of Winter Air Temperature Variation of Three Provinces in Northeast China

通过简要回顾中国学者有关东北三省冬季气温变化的研究成果,概括分析了近百年或近几十年时间尺度平均气温及最高、最低气温年际、年代际变化的基本特征,综述了与冬季气温年际、年代际变化相关的各类海-气环流因子。近百年来,东北冬季气温上升,1987年前后发生增暖突变;北极涛动、西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风等是影响东北冬季气温年际变化的主要因子;北极涛动、东亚冬季风、东亚中高纬环流型等的持续性是冬季气温年代际变化的主要因子。对多种变化特征集中出现的20世纪70年代末的气候变化值得深入探讨,也有必要在整个东北三省的范围内,深入开展冬季气温预测方法的系统研究。另外,测站气温序列的非均一性问题也应引起足够重视。

This paper summarizes the research progress of winter air temperature variations of three provinces （i.e. Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang） in Northeast China. The basic characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variations of average, maximum and minimum air temperatures in the last 100 years or recent several dacades are briefly reviewed. This overview deals with various atmosphere-ocean general circulation factors closely associated with interdecadal and interannual climate variations of winter air temperature of three provinces in Northeast China. Winter air temperature has risen in Northeast China in recent 100 years, and an abrupt warming occurred in about 1987. Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high, and East Asian winter monsoon are the major factors affecting the interannual variations of winter temperature in Northeast China; the persistentce of Arctic Oscillation, East Asian winter monsoon, and circulation pattern over the mid-high latitudes of East Asia are the major factors affecting the interdecadal variations of winter temperature. The climate change possessing multiple characteristics in the late 1970s is worth further discussing. It is necessary to deeply study the short-term climatic prediction methods of winter temperature in the three provinces of Northeast China. Besides, we should pay more attention to the in-homogeneity problems of observed temperature series in Northeast China.