广州市越秀区1988年至2007年居民恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析及预测

Trend Analysis and Prediction of Mortality Rates of Main Malignant Tumors in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou, 1988-2007

【目的】分析越秀区1988-2007年居民主要恶性肿瘤死亡变化趋势,预测未来5年恶性肿瘤死亡率水平,为肿瘤防治计划的制定和地区卫生工作规划提供科学依据。【方法】利用广州市越秀区1988-2007年各年度死因登记资料及人口资料进行统计分析。用游程检验方法对恶性肿瘤死亡情况进行趋势性检验,用平均发展速度法和趋势外推法建立模型并进行预测。【结果】广州市越秀区1988-2007年的恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势,调整死亡率升降趋势不明显。恶性肿瘤死亡率男性高于女性。大肠癌和乳腺癌的调整死亡率呈持续上升趋势,其中大肠癌的死亡率增长速度最快,达40.2%;食管癌、膀胱癌、鼻咽癌调整死亡率呈下降趋势,其他各主要恶性肿瘤的调整死亡率升降不明显。预测到2012年,越秀区恶性肿瘤粗死亡率将达到188/10万。【结论】大肠癌和乳腺癌的死亡率呈上升趋势,为越秀区今后恶性肿瘤防治工作指明重点。

【Objective】 To analyze the changes and trends of mortality rates of the mainmalignant tumors among residents of Yuexiu District of Guangzhou from 1988 to 2007; and to predict the 5-year mortality rates of these malignant tumors in Yuexiu District. 【Methods】 Population data and data of annual registered cause of death of Yuexiu district during the study period were collected. Random runs test was used to test the trends of mortality rates of main malignant tumors. Average speed of development test and trends extrapolation test were used to set up prediction models. 【Results】 The crude mortality rates of the major malignant tumors had been rising in Yuexiu district from 1988 to 2007. But the adjusted mortality rates did not show significant trends. The mortality rates of the major malignant tumors were higher among male as compared to female. The adjusted mortality rates of colorectal cancer and breast cancer kept growing up, in which the colorectal cancer had the highest increasing rate of mortality rate （40.2%）. The adjusted mortality rates of esophageal cancer, bladder cancer and nasopharyngeal cancer declined, while those of other major malignant tumors had no significant trends. The predicted crude mortality rates will reach to 188 persons per ten thousands persons in 2012. 【Conclusion】 In future, the prevention and control of the malignant tumors should be focused on colorectal cancer and breast cancer in Yuexiu district.