马尾松毛虫发生量预测预报方法的研究

Study on Prediction Method of Occurrence Quantity of Dendrolimus punctatus

应用临海市历年松毛虫发生量及有关气象资料，分别将越冬后恢复取食期（即越冬代）和第1代松毛虫幼虫的发生量作为预报量，根据“相关系数法”筛选出预报因子后，采用“多因子简化综合相关法”和“模糊列联表法”进行预报。经回归检验，其预测值与实测值的吻合程度较高，具有较好的应用价值。

With documents of occurrence quantity of Dendrolimus punctatus and relative meteorological document in Linhai, Zhejiang over the years, overwintered generation and the first generation larva quantity would be the prediction occurrence quantity. Prediction factors were selected by' related coefficient'. Prediction was made by'multi-factors reduced synthetic relation' and' fuzzy contingency table'. The regression test resulted that the prediction fited good with observational value.