非线性时间序列分析在气候中的应用研究进展

Research Advances of Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Applying in Climatology

非线性时间序列分析方法在气候领域中的应用主要包括如下三个方面:观测数据处理、气候突变和气候预测。综述众多文献的结果表明,有许多学者为非线性时间序列分析方法在气候领域中的应用做了大量的工作,大部分文章用到了非线性时间序列分析方面较新的方法,几乎每种方法都能在某个方面取得一定的成功。但这些大多是个例的研究,得出的结论有待更多的验证和理论上更系统的阐述;可用于业务预测且可提高预报技巧的方法仍需探求。非线性时间序列分析在气候中的应用还是任重而道远。

The application of nonlinear time series analysis in climatology mainl y includes three aspects as follows： observation data processing, abrupt change of climate and climatological prediction. The results of summarizing many paper s s how that, a great deal of scholars contribute a lot to the application of nonlin ear time series analysis in climatology. Most of the papers have used new method s in nonlinear time series analysis and almost every method can come to the top in some fields. However, they are just results with case study on the whol e, the inclusions need more validation and more systemic illustration; it is nec essary to hunt methods used in operational prediction and enhancing forecast ski ll. There is still a long way to go.