中国能源消费波动的计量分析

Econometrical Analysis on Fluctuation of China's Energy Consumption

利用ARCH类模型对我国能源消费增长率的波动规律进行了实证分析,结果表明:我国能源消费不具备自我稳定机制,其波动性存在非对称现象,正向冲击能够增加能源消费增长率的波动性,而负向冲击则能降低能源消费的波动性,且波动性对增长率存在着显著的正向"溢出效应"。

This paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of energy consumption growth rate in China by ARCH type models, the resuits show that： China＇s energy consumption does not have the self-stability mechanism, the existence of asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the forward impact can increase the energy consumption growth rate fluctuation, but the negative impact can reduce the volatility of energy consumption, and the fluctuation has a positive ＂overflow effect＂ on energy consumption growth rate.