我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击反应的实证分析

The Research of Enterprise Investment Responses to Chinese Fiscal and Monetary Policies

本文运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型方法研究了我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击的反应。通过采用1998年1月～2009年4月的月度数据实证研究表明:在经济周期的不同阶段,央行控制货币供给量的能力存在差异,导致货币政策执行效果不同。在经济繁荣阶段,社会资金运用效率较高,不存在剩余流动性,央行可以较容易地通过调整基础货币和货币乘数控制货币供给总量,这时货币供给的外生性较强,货币政策作用效果比较显著;而在经济衰退阶段,可选择的投资机会较少,流动性相对过剩,货币供给内生性增强,这时央行采取扩张性货币政策不能有效提高货币供给量,货币政策作用效果减弱。短期内虽然财政支出对企业投资会产生正向影响,但是负向影响要大于正向影响,也就是说财政政策对企业投资具有明显的挤出效应。

This paper studies how enterprise investment change when new fiscal and monetary policies launch using structure vector auto-regressive （SVAR） method. Based on 1998.1 - 2009.4 monthly data, the empirical research shows that： In the different stages of economic cycle, the Central Bank＇s control capacity of money supply is different, so monetary policy implementation effect is different. In the economic prosperity stage, the high return on capital make no surplus liquidity, so the Central Bank can more easily control the money supply by adjusting the monetary base and monetary multiplier. The money supply＇s exogenousness is stronger, monetary policy effect is remarkable. While in recession stage, the less investment opportunities, and relative surplus liquidity ,money supply＇s endogenousness enhance, then expansionary monetary policy cannot be taken effectively improve the enterprise investment. Although public expenditure on enterprises investment will produce positive effects in short term, but has negative influence in long time, so the expanding fiscal policy will crowd out enterprises investment as a whole.