流动性过剩：基于贷款供求非均衡模型的分析

Excess Liquidity of Banks:Based on Disequilibrium Model of Demand and Supply of Credit

本文利用对数似然方法估计商业银行贷款供求因素的非均衡模型,试图检验在商业银行贷款能力不下降的情况下,流动性过剩的信贷决定因素,并由此确认我国流动性过剩是贷款需求约束还是供给约束。实证分析结果表明,宏观经济调控中起关键作用的手段仍然是政府对信贷的控制,通过控制银行信贷总量而引起的总供求状况的改变会导致商业银行流动性的变化,因此,银行信贷供给约束造成我国经济中信贷收缩从而发生流动性过剩。

Through estimating the disequilibrium model of banks by log likelihood method, we try to find whether the excess liquidity of banks is determined by factors of supply or factors of demand in conditions of undecreasing credit capacity. The empirical analysis proves that the credit control from government still plays a key role in macro economy. Liquidity of banks changed along with the aggregate credit influenced by supply and demand factors and the constrained credit supply impacts on the decreasing credit which lead to excess liquidity.