南京市建设用地理性目标计量研究

Quantitative Analysis on the Rational Supply of Construction Land:A Case Study of Nanjing

研究目的:把握经济社会发展与建设用地的变化规律,界定建设用地理性目标,破解建设用地指标分配难题。研究方法:比较分析法,函数模拟法,模型计量法和多方案比较法。研究结果:2010年和2020年南京市建设用地理性目标分别为1.69×105hm2和1.94×105hm2,2006—2010年和2011—2020年间南京市新增建设用地至少要保持在2.41×104hm2和3.02×104hm2规模上。研究结论:(1)未来一段时间内中国经济发展对建设用地需求仍处于上升阶段;(2)实证分析结果验证了建设用地利用效率区域差异明显的理论预期。

The purpose of this paper is to define the rational supply of construction land and distribute the top-down construction land quota efficiently and effectively according to the physical rules between economic and social conditions. Methods of comparative analysis, mathematical simulation, and econometrics were employed in the paper. The results firstly show that the rational supplies of construction land in Nanjing are 1.69 × 10^5 hm^2 in 2010 and 1.94 × 10^5hm^2 in 2020 respectively. Secondly, the supplies of construction land in the two stages, i.e., 2006-2010 and 2011-2020, should at least he 2.41 × 10^4 hm^2 and 3.02 × 10^4 hm^2 respectively. The conclusions of the paper are that the demand for construction land in China is still increasing in the coming years according to the economy growth. And the results of the empirical study in the paper verifies the assumption that there should be the spatial difference on efficient utilization of construction land in China.