ESD_FT综合分析法在船用堆失水事故分析中的应用

ESD_FT Method in the Analysis of Marine Reactor Water-loss Accident

ESD(事件序列图)方法常用于对事故发展进程及其后果进行分析,但在模型控制及图形建模能力方面存在不足。对较复杂的系统而言,用纯粹的ESD方法所产生的模型往往过于庞大、复杂且不直观。相反,在ESD方法的基础上,对ESD方法进行拓展和完善,采用ESD_FT(故障树)综合分析法所产生的模型比较简洁直观,且可以充分利用故障树分析技术的优势。探讨ESD_FT综合分析法在船用反应堆事故分析中的应用,提出一种新的由内部故障树展开的ESD基本事件,建立船用堆失水事故的ESD_FT分析模型,得到了事故的发生概率。从分析结果可知,ESD_FT综合分析法是一种有效而实用的事故分析方法。

Event Sequence Diagram （ESD） method is usually used to analyze the accident＇s development and consequences. However, it is quantitatively insufficient to control the model scale and lack of modeling capability. For the complicated system, model purely produced by ESD method is often too complicated to be intuitive. A hybrid approach is employed which combines ESD with Fault Tree method to produce the model. In this way, it can make full use of the advantages of fault tree analysis techniques and the produced model is more concise and intuitive. This paper explores the application of ESD_FT method in the marine reactor accident analysis, and a new evolving ESD event by inner FF is proposed, and the model marine reactor water-loss accident analysis is established. Finally, happening probability of accident is obtained. The results show that ESD_FT method is more effective and applicable for the accident analysis.