摘要
运用距平、累积离差、非趋势波动DFA法,对长江上游寸滩水文站近50年来河流径流量的年内变化和年际变化时间序列进行了分析,根据DFA指数的变化特性,分析了不同时间尺度下流量序列变化的突变点和幂律关系。结果表明,近50年来寸滩站河流径流量汛期、非汛期的径流量呈下降的趋势,变化具有多层次的时间尺度结构,年径流量和汛期、非汛期流量均存在3～8年左右时间尺度的周期变化,经水量变化趋势分析,2006～2013年汛期年径流量会有不同比率下降,2006～2009年非汛期的径流量会有不同比率增加。
Based on the monthly and annual mean runof data from 1956 to 2005, the time series analysis for the annual and inter-annual runoff of Cuntan Hydrologic Station at the up stream of the Yangtze River was carried out by the anomaly, cumulative deviation and DFA methods. According to the index change of DFA, the paper analyzed the relation of chang point. The results shown that runoff in flood season or non-flood season had the descend trend during the last 50 years, the change had the structure of multiple time scales. There were obvious periodic variations of 3 to 8 years for the annual runoff, flood season or non-flood season discharge. Based on the analysis of runoff variation tendency, yearly mean runoff in flood season from 2006 to 2013 is reduced and that in non-flood season from 2006 to 2009 is increased.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2009年第5期154-157,共4页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
关键词
径流量
非趋势波动
距平值
累积离差
runoff
non-detrended fluctuation
anomaly
cumulative difference
